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Cleary Gottlieb Discusses Fed’s Final “Stress Capital Buffer”

On March 4, the Federal Reserve finalized a significant integration of its stress testing regime with its ongoing supervisory capital requirements, by introducing a new “stress capital buffer” requirement for firms subject to the Federal Reserve’s CCAR supervisory stress tests.  An institution-specific stress capital buffer will be determined for each CCAR firm as part of the 2020 CCAR exercise and is intended to take effect October 1, 2020.  However, given the uncertainty and stress in the market caused by COVID 19 mitigation measures, it remains to be seen whether the Federal Reserve could modify the implementation timeline.

The Federal Reserve’s supervisory stress test regime is, and almost certainly will continue to be, the binding capital constraint on most CCAR firms.  The Federal Reserve touts the stress capital buffer and related changes as “simplifying” and part of its “recent efforts to improve the efficiency and risk-sensitivity of its regulations”.

One key simplification is the elimination of the “pass/fail” quantitative assessment. Accordingly, CCAR now becomes primarily an exercise in calculating a CCAR firm’s stress capital buffer.  Beginning October 1, 2020, the stress capital buffer will become a day-to-day ongoing capital requirement in order for CCAR firms to avoid restrictions on capital distributions. This ends the prior CCAR regime’s single-point-in-time approach to evaluating capital plans, which allowed CCAR firms’ pre-stress-test capital to decrease (within bounds) in between the CCAR supervisory stress tests.

The final rule generally adopts the proposal released in April 2018, but includes several welcome modifications.  Significantly, the Federal Reserve formally discarded the proposed “stress leverage buffer” that would have applied to the Tier 1 leverage ratio and eliminated post-stress leverage capital requirements.  CCAR firms no longer must maintain Tier 1 capital above the minimum Tier 1 leverage ratio or minimum supplementary leverage ratio throughout the nine quarters of the hypothetical stress scenario in order to avoid restrictions on their capital distributions.  But one anticipated modification to eliminate the requirement to “prefund” one year of common stock dividends was not incorporated into the final rule, despite Vice Chair Quarles’ stated support in recent remarks.  Other modifications, such as permitting CCAR firms not to incorporate material business plan changes into the calculation of their stress capital buffer and elimination of the pre-approval requirement for capital distributions above a CCAR firm’s original planned distributions, will provide more flexibility to make distributions.

Included below are (i) an illustration (Figure 1) of the U.S. risk-based total capital and buffer requirements (including the stress capital buffer) as they compare to the Basel capital framework, (ii) a graphical timeline (Figure 2) for the annual implementation of the stress capital buffer and (iii) a summary of and certain key observations on the final rule.

Figure 1 – Stress Capital Buffer Comparison (maximum ratios shown)

Figure 2 – Stress Capital Buffer Timeline

Overview of the Final Rule

The stress capital buffer rule (“SCB rule”) purports to simplify the Federal Reserve’s current capital and stress testing requirements by tailoring the capital conservation buffer (“CCB”) to incorporate the post-stress losses of a subject firm (“CCAR firm”) under the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (“CCAR”).

These are the BHCs and IHCs identified in Categories I through IV under the Federal Reserve’s recently revised enhanced prudential standards.  Non-CCAR firms are not materially impacted by the SCB rule.  For non-CCAR firms, the capital conservation buffer remains a fixed 2.5% of common equity tier 1 (“CET 1”).

(i)  the maximum projected decline in a CCAR firm’s CET 1 capital ratio (starting with the actual ratio as of December 31 immediately prior to the CCAR nine-quarter horizon) under the CCAR supervisory severely adverse stress scenario (expressed as a percentage of risk-weighted assets (“RWA”)), and

(ii) a CCAR firm’s planned common stock dividends for the fourth through seventh quarters of the nine-quarter CCAR planning horizon (expressed as a percentage of projected RWA for the quarter in the CCAR horizon in which the firm’s projected CET 1 capital ratio reaches its minimum under the supervisory severely adverse scenario).

The SCB would have a 2.5% floor.  Based on 2019 Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (“DFAST”) results, the SCB for CCAR firms could have ranged between 2.5% and over 8%, although the median decline in CET 1 for all CCAR firms was approximately 3%.[1]

(i)    SCB (floored at 2.5%);

(ii)  any countercyclical capital buffer (“CCyl  Buffer”) that may be in effect (for Category I, II and III firms); and

(iii) for global systemically important BHCs (“GSIBs”) only, the greater of the firm’s GSIB surcharge under method 1 (which aligns with the Basel capital framework’s GSIB surcharge) and method 2 (which reflects a firm’s reliance on short-term wholesale funding and generally results in a higher surcharge) (“U.S. GSIB Surcharge”).

If any planned distribution would cause a CCAR firm to dip into its Standardized CCB under its baseline scenario, the firm must:

(i)  reduce its capital distributions to ensure they would be permitted based on its baseline scenario; and

(ii) notify the Federal Reserve of such adjustments within two business days of receipt of its SCB by resubmitting the Form FR Y-14A summary schedule reflecting the SCB requirement and its reduced planned capital distributions.

Whether a CCAR firm’s adjustments to its planned capital actions would be subject to public disclosure is not clear from the 2020 CCAR instructions or the SCB rule, which provides that the Federal Reserve “may” release information related to such adjustments but does not require such disclosures.[2]  Under the current CCAR process, the Federal Reserve releases the post-stress capital ratios of all of the CCAR firms (both without and with a firm’s modifications to its planned capital actions to avoid a CCAR “fail”).

A CCAR firm will, however, include in its SCB and its Standardized CCB (i.e., “prefund”) four quarters of planned common stock dividends (but not repurchases or redemptions).  However, as with the current DFAST assumptions, the Federal Reserve will assume that payments (equal to the stated dividend or contractual interest or principal due in a quarter) on all outstanding Additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital instruments will continue uninterrupted.  Therefore, in effect, these payments will be enveloped within the capital reductions that become part of the firm’s SCB, and effectively prefunded across the nine-quarter horizon through a different mechanism.

Additionally, the rule provides an assumption that a firm’s leverage ratio denominator and total RWA would generally remain unchanged over the planning horizon.

Key Takeaways

However, the preamble did not address the potential for convertible instruments more generally to be deemed CET 1 for purposes of CCAR if such instruments were issued by a broader set of institutions.  While the Federal Reserve could have used the preamble to shut down entirely the possibility that convertible instruments could be recognized on an as-converted basis in future supervisory stress tests, it seems notable that the preamble did not take that approach.

The SCB rule does not alter the TLAC buffers for U.S. GSIBs and IHCs that have been in place since 2019.  If covered firms breach these buffers, they would also become subject to restrictions on capital distributions (even while remaining above the applicable SCB).       

ENDNOTES

[1] Federal Reserve, Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test 2019: Supervisory Stress Test Methodology and Results, p. 27.

[2]  12 CFR 225.8(h)(5).

[3] The SCB rule provides that the Federal Reserve “will provide a [BHC] with notice of its stress capital buffer requirements … by June 30” which is also same date the CCAR instructions provide as a deadline for the Federal Reserve’s publication of the CCAR results.  Accordingly, it is unclear whether CCAR firms will be notified of their SCB before its publication in the CCAR results.

[4] 2020 CCAR Instructions, p. 15; Preamble to the SCB rule, p. 34.

[5] The Federal Reserve policy statement on the CCyl Buffer indicates it expects to consider at least once per year the applicable level of the U.S. CCyl Buffer.  12 CFR Part 217, Appendix A.  The Federal Reserve’s most recent determination to maintain a CCyl Buffer of 0% was made in March 2019. See https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20190306c.htm.

[6] For example, on March 11, 2020, the Bank of England cut its CCyl Buffer from 1% to 0%, (after previously announcing a target of for its CCyl Buffer of 2% by the end of 2020). The Danish Finance Ministry has announced a similar reduction in its CCyl Buffer from 1.5% to 0%.

[7] Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses (Mar. 15, 2020), https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315b.htm.

This post comes to us from Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen & Hamilton LLP. It is based on the firm’s memorandum, “Federal Reserve Finalizes “Stress Capital Buffer,” dated March 16, 2020, and available here.

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