Risk and Ambiguity in Turbulent Times

Over the past 50 years, the financial markets have been rocked by major shocks, which have led to the introduction of financial instruments that could cope with uncertainty in general and extreme events in particular. To manage the uncertainty surrounding the financial markets, there was a need for reliable uncertainty indicators. The traditional measure of uncertainty―stock volatility―has been challenged by advanced statistical methodologies (GARCH) and derivatives-based forward-looking forecasts (VIX).  In a new paper, we discuss the history of volatility and uncertainty measures, their informativeness, and the information derived from volatility derivatives.

Volatility measures (simple historical volatility, ARCH/GARCH, and the VIX) … Read more