Predicting Recession: Could a Simple Method Deliver Superior Results?

Is there a simpler – and better – way to predict a recession? The answer is yes, and no, we are not astrologists – though one would not necessarily be wrong to use the position of stars and planets for this purpose. It’s just that we economists prefer economics, and we think you should, too, based on our findings in a recent study, “Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set,” available here. In fact, as we discuss below, using the diffusion indexes we developed in this study, along with some … Read more